Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 75489.341506 79770.508509 84054.693445 88660.453013 93468.712433 98337.129906 103635.908418
2025-03-09 68682.570204 75250.284932 82011.293694 89481.588573 97494.238485 105820.629340 115117.156452
2025-03-16 63073.744113 71126.434312 79604.096731 89174.236128 99656.557830 110768.197444 123416.660042
2025-03-23 59837.099555 69105.517215 79044.839756 90463.046909 103183.243939 116883.808330 132720.777822
2025-03-30 56942.051799 67160.083682 78296.786941 91287.069199 105972.134485 122006.979145 140786.742555
2025-04-06 54063.917110 65006.863876 77111.428365 91427.181216 107825.557925 125951.880803 147430.165771
2025-04-13 51435.007097 62963.935295 75892.581768 91378.658472 109332.919891 129401.366792 153433.083702
2025-04-20 49903.929849 62084.097656 75912.145907 92664.733095 112296.594364 134457.219142 161241.630660
2025-04-27 48513.352549 61278.823694 75939.725212 93890.701394 115137.406614 139340.190720 168843.872358
2025-05-04 46918.587227 60144.384850 75504.472434 94504.356668 117207.869769 143295.465114 175355.742429
2025-05-11 45139.706245 58705.490516 74633.136657 94531.374115 118528.598971 146334.165895 180772.807704
2025-05-18 43651.067980 57554.704244 74048.774961 94848.501001 120151.359583 149700.173289 186564.797593
2025-05-25 42101.286978 56288.495072 73295.627944 94945.091092 121511.124814 152778.083561 192068.773121
2025-06-01 41233.294400 55838.915936 73516.465414 96213.939578 124287.078801 157562.750166 199651.656047
2025-06-08 39687.630741 54474.379542 72552.087541 95972.894363 125179.777323 160054.315322 204464.098771
2025-06-15 39011.025603 54188.976494 72910.805516 97358.913842 128067.636185 164971.588276 212242.890427
2025-06-22 38144.058824 53622.050403 72884.420051 98237.347740 130311.202278 169101.020876 219076.872329
2025-06-29 36998.593516 52650.912705 72307.442887 98386.871940 131619.383559 172068.391389 224486.548218
2025-07-06 35826.968036 51605.485123 71598.985825 98335.550708 132648.575804 174675.315943 229449.135156
2025-07-13 35327.064501 51432.654279 72002.336724 99700.374728 135469.008062 179518.587080 237213.783662
2025-07-20 34827.571282 51240.005360 72364.089020 101001.187881 138206.673712 184269.090823 244890.316987
2025-07-27 34085.833285 50693.824692 72240.088028 101652.233123 140101.434080 187961.353932 251255.778182
2025-08-03 33128.099453 49822.789914 71659.603641 101680.895946 141175.444731 190608.394189 256308.390624